Preliminary investigation into the severe thunderstorm environment of Europe simulated by the Community Climate System Model 3

Abstract

Seasonal cycles of parameters conducive for the development of severe thunderstorms were computed using 20 years of output from the Community Climate System Model v3 (CCSM3) for both a 20th century simulation and a 21st century simulation. These parameters were compared against parameters calculated from the NCEP/NCAR Global Reanalysis data, which are of similar resolution. The CCSM3's current simulation produced seasonal and spatial distributions of both mean CAPE and favorable severe environments that were qualitatively similar to the NCEP/NCAR Global Reanalysis, although the CCSM3 underestimates the frequency of severe thunderstorm environments. Preliminary comparisons of the CCSM3's 21st..